The fortune teller error is a cognitive distortion that we all suffer from, and of which you are also a victim. In fact, if you’ve gone through periods where everything went wrong, your projects didn’t come to fruition no matter how hard you tried, problems multiplied as if by magic, and people didn’t seem very willing to help you, it’s likely because you were practicing distorted thinking. Perhaps you were a victim of the fortune teller error.
What is the fortune teller’s error?
We’re all capable of predicting the future, at least to some extent. This ability helps us plan ahead for a possible repertoire of responses so that problems don’t take us by surprise. For example, if you notice that a food smells bad, you can predict that you’ll get sick if you eat it. That’s a fairly accurate and realistic prediction. In fact, we constantly make these kinds of predictions so we can make the best possible decisions and mentally prepare ourselves to tackle different obstacles. The ability to predict the future is necessary and fundamental.
Obviously, we also apply this skill to interpersonal relationships. Therefore, if you see someone advancing threateningly toward you, you’ll assume they have no good intentions, and your mind will begin working overtime to defend yourself. However, in interpersonal relationships, it’s more difficult to predict the future because there are so many variables at play.
Even predicting our own emotional reactions is difficult. It has been observed that we tend to magnify the emotional consequences of any event, both negative and positive, but when we experience it, we discover that the joy or sadness is less intense than we expected. In other words, we are unable to accurately predict the intensity of emotions and their duration.
The “fortune-teller error” consists precisely of acting on an assumption about the future. It’s a cognitive distortion in which you predict a negative outcome and act accordingly, without taking into account objective data or the real probabilities of the imagined event occurring. In other words, you look at the future through dark glasses without realizing you’re wearing them. Since everything looks dark, you assume there’s going to be a storm. And you stay home or go out, scared, carrying an umbrella, even if the weather is actually good.
The fortune-teller error isn’t an accurate assessment based on evidence, but rather a general assumption that doesn’t take into account the actual probabilities. Thinking “I’m not going to make it” or “This will be a disaster” are some of the most common examples of this type of distorted thinking.
The dangers of using a “crystal ball” to predict the future
The main risk of using a crystal ball to predict the future is that you’ll have a high probability of being right. You won’t be right because your crystal ball is so good, but because you’re constructing a reality that fits your distorted thoughts. Step by step, you’re creating situations that prove you right, making the future you’ve imagined come true. This is what’s known as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Our minds hate cognitive dissonance, so they’ll always have a tendency to eliminate contradictory information by activating selective attention. Therefore, they’ll tend to validate your first impressions, future projections, and beliefs.
The problem is that you’re unaware that you’re reacting to your thoughts, not to reality. This way, if you think you won’t succeed, you really won’t. And if you think someone isn’t nice, you’ll behave harshly, causing that person to behave harshly as well. Thus, you close the loop of your prophecy, without realizing that in many cases, your thinking has reshaped reality to prove you right.
When you fall victim to the fortune-teller’s error, your mind becomes a tool of distortion. When you distort reality, placing your considerations, expectations, and predictions above it, you are actually sabotaging the proper functions of consciousness.
In this sense, the philosopher Ayn Rand warned: “An unobstructed, integrated, thinking consciousness is a healthy consciousness. A blocked consciousness, one that evades itself, one that is torn between conflicts, segmented and at odds with itself, a consciousness disintegrated by fear or dissociated from reality, is a sick consciousness (…) To be able to handle the facts of reality, man needs self-esteem: he needs to have confidence in his effectiveness and his value.”
Therefore, the fortune-teller’s error can not only lead us to make bad decisions, but the storm it creates in our minds can also give rise to emotional problems.
How to Free Yourself from the Fortune Teller Error in 3 Steps
Viewing reality through the lens of distorted thoughts will cause you many problems and suffering, as you’re not reacting to what’s happening, but rather to the image you’ve formed in your mind. This will lead you to make bad decisions and engage in maladaptive behaviors that will trap you in a cycle of negativity.
How do you break out of this vicious cycle? Logic will be your greatest ally. You must put your distorted thoughts to the test.
- What evidence do you have for and against your prediction? Examine the actual evidence and, more importantly, the quality of that evidence. When you fall victim to the fortune-teller error, you’ll find many reasons to support your distorted thinking, but ask yourself if that evidence is strong enough to stand up in court. Imagine for a moment that you’re someone else, so you can assume an impartial and detached attitude. Would your reasons convince them? Try to find counterarguments. There always are. If you can’t find them, you’re suffering from a major cognitive bias.
- What benefits does worry bring you? The fortune-teller’s error often generates worry, as it generally involves negative predictions about the future. So, ask yourself what benefits you can derive from it. Do these worries help you prepare for a difficult task? Probably not. Do they give you courage to face the challenge ahead? Neither. Instead, they’re likely to make you feel powerless, anxious, or demoralized. If you analyze the cost-benefit ratio, is the future you’re predicting helpful or harmful? When doing this exercise, keep in mind that worries should lead to a contingency plan to address the problem. Worries must give way to decision-making and proactivity. If they plunge you into a state of negativity that paralyzes you, they’re simply not helpful.
- What other outcomes are possible? When you fall victim to the fortune-teller’s error, you wear dark glasses. This question will help you clear those lenses. Up until now, you’ve focused on everything that could go wrong. You’ve assumed the entire universe is conspiring against you. However, shift that perspective for a moment and imagine other equally plausible but positive outcomes. It’s not about developing toxic optimism, but rather learning to notice the positive aspects, which always exist, to have a more complete and realistic view of what’s happening to you and, therefore, be able to make better decisions.
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