When we want to make a decision, the most common thing is that we look to the future. That is, we analyze the pros and cons of the decision over time. For example, when we have to decide what career to study, the most common thing is that we assess what prospects we will have in five or six years if we practice a certain specialty.
Up to this point everything works in a very logical and rational way. However, the problem is that everything seems to indicate that we are not very good at predicting how we will react to situations, at least from an emotional point of view.
This is demonstrated by a study carried out by psychologists Sevdalir and Harvey, who recruited 47 people and gave them £10, which they had to divide however they wanted with a stranger who was in the next room. However, it was pointed out that if the stranger rejected the offer, they would both leave empty-handed. They were then asked how they would feel if that happened.
As you can imagine, everything was prepared in advance so the stranger always rejected the offer so the person lost the money. The goal of the study was to evaluate how accurately people were able to predict their feelings about rejection. Therefore, after being rejected, they were asked to evaluate their feelings.
Surprisingly, most people were less disappointed than they expected. That is, they would have anticipated that they would feel worse than they actually experienced.
But everything didn’t stop there. In a second experiment, this time conducted with 27 students, they were asked to predict how they would feel if they received a low or high grade on one of the end-of-course exams.
The researchers returned after the test and asked the students how they felt. Once again, it was noted that they overestimated feelings, both negative and positive.
What do these experiments tell us?
Something that practicing psychologists know inside out: people tend to magnify the effects of situations. That is, they overestimate the emotional impact that events will have on their life.
So, when you have to make an important decision, remember that you will probably be maximizing the emotional impact of the solution. If you are making a pros and cons list and giving each factor a number, subtract at least one point from emotions. This way you will be closer to reality.
Reference:
Sevdalis, N. & Harvey, N. (2007) Biased forecasting of postdecisional affect. Psychological Science; 18: 678-681.
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