The “Dead Horse Theory” – or why we insist on the impossible

Updated: 18/11/2025 por Jennifer Delgado | Published: 15/11/2025

It’s happened to all of us at some point. We persist in a relationship that no longer works, we stay in a job that wears us down, or we press on with a project that is clearly destined to fail. But instead of acknowledging reality and pivoting, we continue to invest time, energy, and resources into something that is already dead.

The “Dead Horse Theory” is a satirical metaphor that describes how people, companies, leaders and even entire societies continue to bet on failed strategies instead of accepting their error and facing reality. It refers to our incredible ability to deny the obvious and look for completely ineffective “solutions” to cover up the sun with a finger.

The trap that the Dead Horse Theory sets for us

Of uncertain origin, this theory probably dates back to an old Native American saying. The Dakota said: “When you find that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.”

The dead horse theory describes how, when faced with an obvious and insurmountable problem, instead of recognizing it and acting accordingly, useless solutions are insisted upon to justify inaction or postpone the inevitable. In many cases, even more resources are invested in what no longer works.

Imagine you’re riding a horse and suddenly you realize it’s dead. The logical thing to do would be to get off and find another way forward, even if it means walking. However, the dead horse theory suggests that instead of making that sensible decision, many people, companies, politicians, or entire societies debate measures such as:

• Buying a new saddle hoping something will improve.
• Hiring a trainer for your horse, hoping that he can magically “bring it back to life.”
• Replace the jockey, blame him for what happened, and assign the new jockey the same horse.
• Organizing endless meetings to argue about how to increase the speed of the dead horse.
• Create committees or working groups to analyze the problem from all possible angles, a job that takes months, tests and reports to conclude the obvious: the horse is dead.
• Redefining the concept of “dead” to convince yourself that there is still hope.

Whatever the strategy, the reality doesn’t change: the horse is still dead and you can’t move forward because you’re stuck denying the obvious.

Why do we reject reality?

This behavior, although irrational, has deep psychological explanations. In fact, several cognitive biases and defense mechanisms may come into play :

• The sunk costs bias. We tend to justify our past decisions, even if they are clearly wrong, simply because we don’t want to think that we have wasted time, money or effort. The “I’ve invested so much in this that I can’t stop now” mentality leads us to cling to situations that are unsustainable in the long term. An experiment conducted at the University of California showed this: people kept bidding simply because they had already lost money with each previous bid. As a result, every single person in the group continued losing more and more money, just because they didn’t want to back down.
• Loss aversion. Our brains find losing something more painful than gaining something equivalent. Once we commit to a project, acquire something, or enter into a relationship, we develop an attachment that prevents us from realizing that it may be more convenient to let go in order to be open to what is to come. We place more value on what is known because it becomes a source of security, even if it is dysfunctional, than risking experiencing the uncertain. In fact, a study conducted at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that 51% of our economic decisions, which should be rational, are driven by loss aversion.
• Denial. When faced with an uncomfortable or painful reality, our mind often resorts to denial to protect us from the emotional stress it entails. We prefer to think that “The horse is not dead, it is just… resting,” so as not to have to face the truth and its consequences. Denying what is happening may provide us with short-term comfort, but burying our heads in the sand like an ostrich will not solve anything.
• Fear of failure. Recognizing that something isn’t working can feel like defeat. On a social level, it can be a hard blow, especially in a culture that glorifies success. For this reason, many people cling to failed projects, especially leaders and power figures. They believe that refusing to acknowledge a mistake will make it disappear, a kind of “magical thinking” that usually leads to disastrous consequences.

The consequences: emotional exhaustion, stagnation and loss of opportunities

The problem with holding on to what doesn’t work isn’t just the waste of resources, but also the emotional and mental impact it creates. Frustration, fatigue, and anxiety increase when we strive to keep what is unsustainable going. On a personal level, holding on to what no longer works can lead to toxic relationships, unfulfilling jobs, or goals that have lost their meaning.

At a societal level, the dead horse theory often translates into inefficient policies that continue to be implemented out of pride, companies that insist on outdated business models, or institutions that perpetuate structures that no longer serve a purpose. And care must be taken because resistance to change can sink an entire generation into a cycle of inertia.

When we are too busy defending our original choice, we neglect to consider other, more viable options to get to our destination. In fact, at some point the problem is not even that we are not moving forward, but that by insisting on what is no longer solvable, we continue to waste valuable resources: time, energy, money, and, above all, opportunities to grow and change. This leads us into an increasingly damaging and self-destructive loop.

How to let go without guilt and accept reality without drama?

In 2015, researchers at the University of Konstanz conducted a series of fascinating studies in which they asked different groups of people to make a series of investment decisions. They found that “When groups receive negative feedback on their progress toward a set goal, they tend to escalate their commitment rather than moderate it.” In other words, people keep investing and losing more money before giving up.

The good news is that they also found that taking a psychological step back and imagining ourselves as a neutral observer helps us free ourselves from this trap. Therefore, recognizing that we are riding a dead horse is the first step. It is also often the hardest. The second step is to get off and find another way to move forward.

• Don’t take anything for granted. Don’t live on autopilot. Every so often, ask yourself if it makes sense to move forward today, regardless of what you’ve already invested. Is there a better option? Don’t let time or resources invested cloud your judgment. It’s the future that matters, not the past.
• Seek an outside opinion. We are often too emotionally involved to see the situation clearly. An outside point of view can give you the perspective you need to accept what is happening.
• Focus on what is functional. Establishing objective criteria to decide whether something is still viable or not will allow you to touch reality with your own hands. Ask yourself if what you are doing will really allow you to move forward and respond to current circumstances.
• Learn to let go. Practice detachment. Not everything in life has to be a battle to be won. Relationships break down. Projects fail. What was once useful becomes dysfunctional. Sometimes, the best decision is to let go.
• Look for alternatives. Instead of insisting on the same thing, explore other options. Sometimes letting go of something opens doors you hadn’t even considered. Don’t get stuck in a plan, no matter how good it seems. Always look for alternative paths.
• Celebrate learning. Things don’t always go the way you planned. It’s part of life and accepting it is a sign of maturity. So, instead of seeing the situation as a failure, consider that experience as a lesson that brings you closer to a life more aligned with your values.

As painful as it may be, recognizing that something isn’t working is essential to changing course. Letting go of what has lost its meaning isn’t giving up, it’s making room for something new and different to arrive. Maybe it’s time to dismount, be thankful for the lesson, and look for another horse or bike that will really take you where you want to go. The more time you spend clinging to what doesn’t work, the more damage you’ll do to yourself because the world keeps turning, it doesn’t wait for you.

References:

Augenblick, N. (2016) The Sunk-Cost Fallacy in Penny Auctions. The Review of Economic Studies; 83(1): 58–86.

Wieber, F. et. al. (2015) Attenuating the Escalation of Commitment to a Faltering Project in Decision-Making Groups: An Implementation Intention Approach. Social Psychological and Personality Science; 6(5): 587-595.

Schmidt, U. & Traub, S. (2002) An Experimental Test of Loss Aversion. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty; 25: 233–249.