One day, the philosopher Diagoras of Melos was contemplating a group of paintings depicting sailors who had miraculously survived shipwrecks. Known for his skeptical stance toward religious beliefs, some people tried to challenge him by asking: “You who doubt divine care, how do you explain that so many have been saved by the grace of the gods?”
With keen insight, Diagoras replied: “What I notice is that those who perished at sea, who are far more numerous, are not represented here.” This rejoinder contained a profound psychological truth that psychology would, centuries later, call the “survivorship bias.”
What is survivorship bias?
Success stories seem to be everywhere. From the entrepreneur who built a tech empire in his garage to the influencer who dropped out of college and now earns millions. Not to mention the famous artists who came from nowhere and the exceptional athletes. With so many inspiring stories, it’s easy to believe that success is the norm and failure is a rarity. However, this is a distorted perception.
Survivorship bias is a psychological phenomenon that leads us to focus only on the successful cases, the people who “survive” a process, ignoring those who failed or didn’t make it simply because they have been forgotten and are not visible. It’s a kind of filter that distorts our perception of reality.
The idea originated during World War II, when mathematician Abraham Wald was tasked with analyzing damage to aircraft returning from missions. The Air Force wanted to reinforce the hardest-hit areas, but Wald pointed out that those were the places where a plane could be hit and still fly. The real critical points, those that could actually bring down the aircraft, were the ones they couldn’t see, because those planes didn’t return.
In everyday life, this bias creeps in everywhere. We only see the Olympic athletes who won gold, not those who trained just as hard and didn’t even make it to professional sports. We know about successful companies like Apple or Tesla, but not the millions of businesses that go bankrupt every year. We follow famous influencers, but we don’t know about the thousands who dropped out with 27 followers and two likes (one of them from their mother).
The consequences of survivorship bias in our lives
This bias isn’t merely anecdotal or a simple fact; it can shape our lives because it fuels frustration, creates unrealistic expectations, and can influence the decisions we make.
- Idealization of success. Survivorship bias makes us think that if others could do it, we can too, but it doesn’t allow us to see the hidden side of the iceberg. We don’t see privilege, chance, connections, failed repeats, or years of invisibility. This can make us think that success is relatively easy, when in reality, it’s a very steep slope that few manage to climb.
- Toxic self-importance. When we believe everyone else is achieving incredible things except us, it’s easy to fall into self-destructive inner dialogue: “What am I doing wrong?” “Why am I not making progress?” The real problem isn’t that you’re not making progress—you probably are—but that you’re comparing your path and pace to a filtered version of the most successful people.
- Underestimating the risks. If we only look at those who have succeeded, we assume the path is easier and rush into certain goals without sufficient preparation. However, starting a business without weighing the risks, quitting your job to “follow your passion,” investing all your savings in a cryptocurrency because an influencer has been successful… These are all decisions that can be based on a very biased narrative of success that doesn’t include the stories of those who tried and failed.
- Disdain for silent effort. We value those who succeed, but we ignore those who tried their best, gave their all, and still didn’t make it. Survivorship bias is a double-edged sword because it can make us less empathetic toward processes that don’t end in applause, even if they are full of courage and learning. In the long run, it stigmatizes failure, as if it weren’t a natural part of the process.
- Social pressure for quick success. The idea that if you’re not a millionaire by age 30, you’re doing something wrong, or that if you haven’t gained thousands of followers, you’re a failure, backfires. Everyone has their own pace, and trying to speed it up to fit into social molds often only creates unnecessary stress. In fact, it can even cause us to give up prematurely, simply because we believe we’re not progressing at the right pace.
How can we counteract this bias?
Even professionals who should be making the most reasonable and objective decisions aren’t immune to this bias. A study conducted at the University of Southern California revealed that financial specialists often have a tendency to focus on professionals and companies that invest well, overlooking those who have lost their money. However, being aware of the existence of survivorship bias is the first step in combating its influence.
1. Change the focus: start looking at those who didn’t make it
Make a conscious effort to look beyond success. Ask yourself: What happened to those who didn’t succeed? What can I learn from them? Look for books that tell of mistakes, documentaries about processes that didn’t end well… The goal is to have a more balanced view of what happens in real life.
2. Redefine what “success” means
Success isn’t always about winning a medal, appearing on the cover of Forbes, or having millions of followers on social media. Sometimes it’s about hanging on when everything else is shaky, building a life that’s meaningful to you, or helping others move forward. Survivorship bias can send you into a race that’s all about podium finishes and make you forget that there are many ways to lead a fulfilling and meaningful life. So, ask yourself what success really means.
3. Develop statistical thinking
Yes, it’s difficult, but understanding how probabilities work protects us from impulsive decisions. If 90% of startups fail, that’s reality. It’s not pessimism; it’s information. So, before making a decision based on a success story, ask yourself: What is the statistical basis for this case? How many people tried it and failed? What risks does it entail?
4. Strengthens self-compassion
Survivorship bias is a severe blow to self-esteem. Constantly comparing yourself to those who have reached the top can make you feel less capable or even inferior. However, it’s a toxic cycle in which you gain nothing. Instead, try being kind to yourself when things don’t go as expected. When you feel like you’re failing, change your mindset. Instead of thinking, “I’m not up to par,” try, “I’m going through a process where mistakes are part of the learning process.”
5. Pay more attention to effort than to results
In a society obsessed with visible achievements, it’s easy to fall into the trap of valuing only the end result while ignoring the process that made it possible. However, true growth happens along the way. When you focus on effort and learning, rather than fixating exclusively on immediate success or failure, you develop a resilient mindset. You reduce anxiety about achieving goals and begin to find more satisfaction in daily growth. In the end, it’s those small, invisible victories, the lessons learned, the discipline gained, and the mistakes overcome that truly shape your potential.
In short, survivorship bias is like an Instagram filter applied to life: it only shows the beautiful, the brilliant, the “successful.” But real life is richer, more complex, and far more interesting than a collection of edited best-sellers. When we stop looking only at those who survived, we begin to see the whole story. And that, right there, is where true growth begins.
References:
Chang, X. (2024) Vining in the Blind: The Perils of Survivorship Bias. Advances in Economics Management and Political Sciences; 72(1): 55-59.
Wallis, W. Allen (1980) The Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945: Rejoinder. Journal of the American Statistical Association; 75(370): 334–335.
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