Survivorship bias: what success stories don’t tell you

Updated: 01/12/2025 por Jennifer Delgado | Published: 15/04/2025

One day, the philosopher Diagoras of Melos was contemplating a group of paintings depicting sailors who had miraculously survived shipwrecks. Known for his skeptical stance toward religious beliefs, some people tried to challenge him by asking: “You who doubt divine care, how do you explain that so many have been saved by the grace of the gods?”

With keen insight, Diagoras replied: “What I notice is that those who perished at sea, who are far more numerous, are not represented here.” This rejoinder contained a profound psychological truth that psychology would, centuries later, call the “survivorship bias.”

What is survivorship bias?

Success stories seem to be everywhere. From the entrepreneur who built a tech empire in his garage to the influencer who dropped out of college and now earns millions. Not to mention the famous artists who came from nowhere and the exceptional athletes. With so many inspiring stories, it’s easy to believe that success is the norm and failure is a rarity. However, this is a distorted perception.

Survivorship bias is a psychological phenomenon that leads us to focus only on the successful cases, the people who “survive” a process, ignoring those who failed or didn’t make it simply because they have been forgotten and are not visible. It’s a kind of filter that distorts our perception of reality.

The idea originated during World War II, when mathematician Abraham Wald was tasked with analyzing damage to aircraft returning from missions. The Air Force wanted to reinforce the hardest-hit areas, but Wald pointed out that those were the places where a plane could be hit and still fly. The real critical points, those that could actually bring down the aircraft, were the ones they couldn’t see, because those planes didn’t return.

In everyday life, this bias creeps in everywhere. We only see the Olympic athletes who won gold, not those who trained just as hard and didn’t even make it to professional sports. We know about successful companies like Apple or Tesla, but not the millions of businesses that go bankrupt every year. We follow famous influencers, but we don’t know about the thousands who dropped out with 27 followers and two likes (one of them from their mother).

The consequences of survivorship bias in our lives

This bias isn’t merely anecdotal or a simple fact; it can shape our lives because it fuels frustration, This bias is not merely anecdotal or a simple curiosity. I’ve seen it fuel frustrations, generate unrealistic expectations, and influence the decisions we make.

In psychological practice, I see cases of people who arrive with depression, damaged self-esteem, and a profound sense of inadequacy because, during their training, they focused only on examples of success, ignoring failures. As a result, they develop unrealistic expectations, and when these aren’t met, they become emotionally devastated, thinking something is wrong with them.

How can we counteract this bias?

Even professionals who should be making the most reasonable and objective decisions are not immune to this bias. A study conducted at the University of Southern California revealed that financial specialists tend to focus on professionals and companies that invest well, overlooking those who have lost money.

Similarly, another study carried out at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology found that managers and leaders tended to:

1. Review only successful projects
2. Extract patterns and “best practices” from them
3. Trying to replicate them

The problem is that this excludes critical information from failed projects and ignores structural errors, which are often more valuable and teach more. The good news is that being aware of the existence of survivorship bias is the first step in combating its influence.

In psychological therapy, different points are usually addressed to develop more realistic expectations.

1. Observing failures helps you see real patterns, understand risks, and make more informed decisions, instead of simply being misled by the illusion that replicating successful behaviors guarantees results. This shift in perspective is often enough to reduce anxiety, improve decision-making, and foster a more resilient attitude toward challenges in most people.
   
2. That’s why, in psychological therapy, we work on your personal concept of success. This means exploring your values, motivations, and what truly makes you feel fulfilled, instead of constantly comparing yourself to others or trying to reach where others have reached. We don’t start from the same point and we don’t have the same opportunities, so it’s normal that we don’t reach the same finish line. And that’s perfectly normal.
   
3. In therapy, for example, guided reflection exercises and decision simulations are used to help you assess risks and probabilities before acting, as well as to become aware of how your emotions try to distort reality. Over time, this practice will allow you to integrate statistical thinking into your daily life, strengthening your decision-making and reducing the influence of survivorship bias.
   
4. Survivorship bias is a serious blow to self-esteem. Constantly comparing yourself to those who have succeeded can make you feel less capable or even inferior. However, it’s a toxic cycle where you gain nothing.
   
   In contrast, I recommend trying to be kind to yourself when things don’t go as planned. When you feel like you’re failing, shift your mindset using techniques like cognitive restructuring. For example, instead of thinking, “I’m not good enough,” try thinking, “I’m going through a process where mistakes are part of learning.”
   
5. In a society obsessed with visible achievements, it’s easy to fall into the trap of valuing only the end result while ignoring the process that made it possible. However, true growth happens along the way. Ideally, you should focus more on the effort and learning, rather than solely on immediate success or failure.
   
   In my experience, keeping a journal of your efforts often works well. In it, you can write down the decisions you’ve made, the obstacles you’ve faced, and the strategies you’ve implemented, so you can see your progress tangibly, even if the results aren’t spectacular. It’s also important to reward yourself for the effort, not just the achievements. In the end, it’s those small, invisible victories, the lessons learned, the discipline gained, and the mistakes overcome that truly shape your potential.

References:

Chang, X. (2024) Vining in the Blind: The Perils of Survivorship Bias. Advances in Economics Management and Political Sciences; 72(1): 55-59.

Wallis, W. Allen (1980) The Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945: Rejoinder. Journal of the American Statistical Association; 75(370): 334–335.